Many Ethiopians take dim view of burgeoning war with Somalia

By Stephanie McCrummen, Washington Post

ADDIS ABABA, ETHIOPIA - As Ethiopia and Somalia's Islamic Courts movement inch closer to all-out conflict, a widespread view among people here in the capital is that Prime Minister Meles Zenawi is using the conflict to distract people from a vast array of internal problems and to justify further repression of opposition groups, including ethnic Somalis in Ethiopia.
In particular, opponents of war say he is playing up the claim that there are Al-Qaida operatives within the Islamic Courts in order to maintain the support of the U.S. government, which relies on a steady flow of Ethiopian intelligence that some regional analysts say is of dubious value.

A recent attempt by Congress to sanction the Ethiopian government for human-rights violations failed after former Republican House leader Dick Armey of Texas argued that the United States needs Ethiopia to fight terrorism.

Meanwhile, Meles has become so disliked in Addis Ababa that people compare him to the former left-wing dictator known as "the Butcher of Addis Ababa," Mengistu Haile Mariam, who was convicted last week of genocide following a trial lasting 12 years.

After 12 years in power, Meles presides over a nation that still does not produce enough food to feed its own people, relying on the U.N. World Food Program to supplement struggling farmers.

The number of people infected with HIV is rising every year: At least 500,000 Ethiopians are living with the virus now, according to government figures. At least half of the population lives on less than $1 a day, which is not enough to buy a single meal.

A smattering of new skyscrapers have gone up in Addis Ababa lately, and in recent years, the gaudy Sheraton Hotel was built, a fortified palace of marble and brass and $100 Scotch set amid a rusting neighborhood of leaning, one-room shacks. Locals call it Paradise in Hell.

Last year's elections began with high hopes and degenerated into a bloodbath.

Opposition groups, which made significant gains but did not win a majority, according to the national election board, accused the government of rigging the tally and flooded the streets to challenge the results. During the rallies in May and November last year, unarmed protesters were sprayed with bullets while others were hunted down, killed inside their homes and in their gardens, in front of children and neighbors.

Hundreds may have been killed

Though the official government report released in October listed 197 demonstrators killed, some members of the government's own commission and human rights groups have estimated that the number could be as high as 600. Seven police officers were killed.

Since then, the mood around the capital has been grim.

"After the elections, the government is ruling Ethiopia by military force and propaganda, we all know that," said Nemera Bersisa, 35, a record-keeper. "We're dead after the election."

While most of the 30,000 prisoners taken after the election have been released, several hundred opposition leaders remain in jail, including the mayor of Addis Ababa, Birhanu Nega, who was a professor in the United States, and Haile Miriam Yacob, who served on the U.N. commission settling a border dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea.

Four private newspapers have been shut down. A reporter for the Associated Press was expelled. And random arrests on the streets of Addis Ababa continue daily, people say.

Residents of a largely Ethiopian Somali neighborhood called Rwanda say that government security forces have been rounding up people who refuse to swear allegiance to Meles' ruling party, a charge the government denied.

Likened to an insurrection

In a recent interview, Meles, a former Marxist guerrilla who shed his fatigues for tailored suits when he took power in a 1991 coup, referred to the opposition as leading an "insurrection" intent on overthrowing the government by violent means.

Meles said he retains U.S. support when it comes to defending Ethiopia against the Islamic Courts movement, which now controls much of Somalia, including Mogadishu, the capital. Meles said the Islamic Courts have already attacked Ethiopia by arming secessionist Ethiopian Somali groups in the Ogaden region along the Somali border, a claim opposition leaders say is hardly a justification for war.

The Islamic Courts say it is the Ethiopians that have invaded Somalia. While Meles has repeatedly denied having troops there, the United Nations and regional diplomats estimate that at least 8,000 Ethiopian soldiers are in Somalia, backing the weak transitional government.

The Associated Press contributed to this report.